Homicides and Guns: What US Data Shows

" I previously argued that international data generally shows increased gun ownership does not cause increased numbers of homicides. Sweden and Switzerland have relatively high gun ownership rates with very low homicide rates. South Africa has very low gun ownership but high homicide numbers. I concluded: “While it would be stupid to say that gun ownership is the only factor influencing homicide rates, it would be even more stupid to claim that the numbers show that gun ownership increases homicides. The evidence does NOT support that when we look at international data.”

What about the 50 states? Homicide rates were easy to find, thanks to the Census Bureau. However, determining gun rates is a bit difficult. I use two different sets of figures for this. One set purports to show the percentage of residents who own guns and is from USLiberals.about.com; the other was compiled by The Daily Beast, using the number of background checks, per 100,000 people, performed by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, used before a gun is legally sold to someone by any firearms dealer.

Does high gun ownership translate into high homicides rates? The ten states with the highest ownership rates were Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Idaho, Alabama and North Dakota. All of them have ownership rates between 50% and 60%. The average homicide rate for these 10 states is 4.07, which is below the national average of 5.1, according to the Census Bureau.

The ten states with the lowest percentage of gun ownership were Florida, Maryland, California, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Hawaii. The average homicide rate in theses states is 4.52, which is lower than the national average, but higher than the top 10 gun-owning states. 

The Daily Beast says the background check rate, per 100,000 people, is the best data we have on gun ownership, but admits that for Kentucky the numbers are all out of whack, due to monthly background checks there. If we use this data—excluding Kentucky—the top ten gun-friendly states are Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Wyoming, South Dakota, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Alabama. For these top 10 gun-friendly states, the homicide rate averages 3.6 per 100,000, again well below the national average of 5.1.

With this data, the 10 least gun-friendly states would be New Jersey, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, California, Massachusetts, Delaware, Florida and Michigan. These 10 states had an average homicide rate of 4.47. This is again lower than the national average—though not as significantly as before—but once again, well above the 10 states that are most gun friendly.

If we look at the ten states with the lowest homicide rates (NH, VT, IA, UT, ID, MN, HI, ND, WY, ME), averaging 1.57, we find they average 7298 background checks per 100,000 people. The ten most deadly states, in terms of murders, averaging 7.96, (LA, NM, IL, MD, TN, AL, MS, SC, MO, OK) have homicide rates significantly higher and they have an average of 6,990 background checks per 100,000.

If we look at the ten least murderous states, we see their gun-ownership rate is 41.34% of their populations. But, the most deadly states have ownership rates of 39.82%

Hawaii ranks dead last in terms of gun ownership (6.7%) yet six other states have lower homicide rates and average gun ownership rates more than six times higher (average 42.63%). Louisiana is 1^st in homicide rates (12.3) and 13^th in gun-ownership rates. The twelve states with more guns per capita have a significantly lower homicide rate, 3.96.

In second place, in terms of homicide rates, is New Mexico (10), yet it ranks 32^nd in gun ownership. Illinois is in third place, in regards to homicides (8.4), but in 44^th place in regards to gun ownership.

In conclusion, allow me to rephrase what I said before: “While it would be stupid to say that gun ownership is the only factor influencing homicide rates, it would be even more stupid to claim that the numbers show that gun ownership increases homicides. The evidence does NOT support that when we look at national data.” I previously argued that international data generally shows increased gun ownership does not cause increased numbers of homicides. Sweden and Switzerland have relatively high gun ownership rates with very low homicide rates. South Africa has very low gun ownership but high homicide numbers. I concluded: “While it would be stupid to say that gun ownership is the only factor influencing homicide rates, it would be even more stupid to claim that the numbers show that gun ownership increases homicides. The evidence does NOT support that when we look at international data.”